The Signal and the Noise is often mentioned in reference to ENSO forecasting and not just in reference to Nate Silver’s bestselling book. In fact, understanding what is signal and what is noise is critical to interpreting predictions from models and climate science in general.
The ENSO Signal and The Noise Read More >
We’d like our forecasts—both weather and climate—to be simple and certain. Because of the fluid and chaotic nature of the ocean and atmosphere, however, forecasts are never about certainty: they’re about probability.
Why do ENSO forecasts use probabilities? Read More >
The insensitivity of the global climate response once emissions cease in simplified coupled climate models has been used to argue for lack of committed warming based on past carbon emissions.
Trajectory sensitivity of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emission Read More >
Last summer, climate conditions were primed to deliver an above-average—possibly very active—hurricane season in the Atlantic. And then…? The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season produced the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982. What happened?
What happened to last year’s Atlantic hurricane season? Read More >
